Simba Makoni – Zimbabwe’s saviour or Mugabe’s decoy?

In a country in which there has, for a long time, been very little or no good news, the announcement this week by the former Zimbabwean minister of finance, Dr Simba Makoni, that he will contest the upcoming elections as an independent was quite exhilarating. However it was hardly a surprise, after so much speculation in the preceding weeks that he would do so. If there was anyone who was surprised, it was probably the man with whom Dr Makoni will lock horns in the contest, President Robert Mugabe, who he had met in a private but much publicised tête-à-tête two weeks previously.

It is early days yet to decipher and clearly understand what strategy Makoni has to unseat the man who has been on the hot seat for 28 years - all of Zimbabwe’s life as an independent country. Many before him have tried and failed. The first real challenger to Mugabe’s power was Edgar “Two-boy” Tekere, the maverick politician who broke out of Zanu-PF famously declaring that, under Mugabe, democracy in the party and the country was in the intensive care unit. He formed the Zimbabwe Unity Movement and in 1990 contested the presidential elections which he lost to Mugabe. After many years of turmoil within his party and within his personal life, he rejoined Zanu-PF only to be expelled again after the publication of his best-selling biography which was somewhat unflattering to Mugabe’s leadership credentials.

The next serious challenger to Mugabe was Enoch Dumbutshena, the former chief justice of the country who led his new party, The Forum Party, in a contest against Mugabe in 1995 and, not unexpectedly, lost the competition. Justice Dumbutshena was a popular, humble and honourable man who could have been trusted to rule the country in a fair and just manner. But he was no much against Mugabe’s slick and well oiled election machinery and his failure to unseat Mugabe ensured that he would be consigned to the dustbin of history. After Dumbutshena came, we all now know, Morgan Tsvangirai, the astute and articulate former trade unionist who, with his colleagues cobbled up the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in 1999 which nearly won the 2000 parliamentary elections. The MDC was the first party since the country’s independence to give Zanu-PF a serious run for their money and there is widely held belief that the party won the contest but were rigged out of their victory. In the presidential elections in 2002, Tsvangirai went head to head with Mugabe in the presidential election and “lost”. (I place “lost” in parenthesis because the results were highly disputed and questionable.)

Without doubt Tsvangirai is a popular and savvy politician who could have as easily lead the country back to prosperity but, like many of us, he is not infallible. I suspect that he may have made some errors of judgement which allowed his party to be split into two factions. As a consequence and with Tsvangirai’s credentials under scrutiny, the MDC is likely to present a weak and fractured opposition to Mugabe in the forthcoming elections. The split opposition vote will allow Mugabe a reasonably clear run for re-election. Enter Simba Makoni. The one thing that is certain about politics is that it is a game of opportunism and there is indeed an opportunity for Makoni to make himself a national hero. With the MDC in near shambles, Makoni may present the electorate with the only credible and realistic option to unseat Mugabe.

Zimbabwe is a country which is yearning and desperate for change and the leadership trophy is there for the taking by anyone brave enough to stand up to Mugabe and present himself as a serious contender. Makoni comes in with a number of real advantages. He has the experience emanating from his tenure as a government minister and as the executive secretary of the Southern African Development Community. He is what one would call an “insider” who has been privy to the workings of national governance and international diplomacy. I would add that he is well connected to the national, regional and international “power grids” and could, if he won the election, move very quickly to restore Zimbabwe’s standing within the international community.

Makoni is clever and articulate (you do not earn a PhD by being dumb!) and can make a persuasive case to the electorate and to whoever cares to listen to him. He understands economics, having been a minister of finance. He has worked with youth organisations, as a former minister of youth and sports. His SADC experience has burnished his internationalist credentials. But most importantly, he has the endorsement of the man whom he seeks to replace. He was sacked as minister of finance by Mugabe and that is as a big an endorsement as one could ever get in the current scheme of things in Zimbabwe. The conventional wisdom in Zimbabwe is that in a free and fair election just about anyone can run and win against Mugabe. Makoni is certainly not just anyone.

Having made the case for Makoni’s participation in the forthcoming elections let me, for a moment, look at the downside of his mission. The first thing is that his entry is bound to raise a lot of suspicion in the minds of many about his motives and sincerity. The fact that he met with Mugabe in a private session a few weeks before his announcement raises the spectre that some kind of deal could have been cut. It is quite possible that Mugabe could have encouraged Makoni to run in order to split the opposition vote. Mugabe knows very well that the more opponents there are in the contest, the better his chances are of retaining power. Of course Mugabe would be taking the risk that the opposition could decide to coalesce around Makoni thus making him a real and potent challenger but I suspect that that is a risk a very desperate Mugabe would be prepared to take. I would also expect that if a deal was indeed cut, Mugabe would have ensured that there were adequate safeguards and guarantees to protect him.

The second disadvantage which Makoni will face will be the limited time left for him to put together an election machinery which will deliver to him the desired results. A period of less than two months is simply too short for anyone to launch a credible campaign in a national election. There is a possibility that a lot of homework may have been done before the announcement and that structures may already have been secretly put in place. But I doubt this very much. Mugabe has over the years strengthened his intelligence capacity and services to the extent that nothing big or serious is likely to happen within the country and his party without him getting to know about it. And when he does, he acts with ruthless efficiency to weed out the miscreants as Professor Jonathan Moyo and others involved in the abortive Tsholotsho saga will readily testify.

The MDC had barely seven months to organise and prepare for the 2000 parliamentary elections. But they were bringing with them a whole national trade union organisation. Apart from a few and as yet unknown disgruntled elements within Zanu PF, Makoni has no known such organisation and machinery and he wants to pull off a win in a presidential election with barely two months left on the calendar! That is a real tall order, even running against a widely unpopular and thoroughly discredited opponent like Mugabe. Makoni will have to work his socks off every hour and minute of the remaining days to the election and pray very hard for divine intervention if he is to make any mark on the plebiscite.

Finally, Makoni has not yet shown how and whether he can stand up to the Mugabe’s intimidation and disruption tactics. As an insider and having lived all his political life sheltered under the Zanu PF umbrella, he is most certainly untrained and inexperienced in fending off the poisonous arrows and barbed spears which will undoubtedly be spewed towards him by the massive Mugabe propaganda machinery. He may have shown that he has the balls to stand up to Mugabe, but can he sustain the challenge in the face of adversity? How he handles himself in the next two months will determine whether he will become a hero and saviour of the Zimbabwean people or whether he will be regarded as a decoy for yet another Mugabe grab for power.