Elections in Zimbabwe – contest or no contest?

Last week’s announcement of 29 March 2008 as the date for elections in Zimbabwe should have come as a welcome relief to many but it almost certainly didn’t. You would think that with a leadership that has presided over the collapse of a country’s economic and social infrastructure, that has survived by brutalising its own people and which has demonstrated a propensity for making wrong policy decisions, the citizens would be so fed up that they could not wait for the next election to throw out such bad leaders. But this is Zimbabwe and the rules of common sense do not apply here.

President Robert Mugabe, against all the protestations and pressure of the opposition which had sought a postponement to enable better preparation for the event, has decided that he cannot wait any longer to have his mandate confirmed and extended by his loyal and committed subjects. He has decided that the time to hold the elections is now and he is convinced and confident that he will be re-elected. The question of whether the lections will be free and fair is not material nor should it be allowed to stand in the way of his unbridled lust to hang on to power for life. The issue that the people who he rules over are suffering daily mostly because of his government’s misplaced, ill-conceived and ill-considered policies is of no consequence.

One would have thought that the whole point of holding elections is to choose a leader who can make lives better for his people - a leader who will lead the country to prosperity and development and who will leave the country in a better and stronger position for future generations. Mr Mugabe has been at the helm of the country for 28 years and he has very little if any success to boast of. Under any real democratic conditions he would have long been shown the door by the electorate but he has survived because he knows how to manipulate the election system in his favour.

His strategy for manipulating elections has three main components. The first is to intimidate the opposition though brutal force and violence which are perpetrated through the machinery of the state such as the army, the police and the intelligence units and his party’s elements including the war veterans and the youth league. The opposition parties are restricted from campaigning widely by beatings, torture and murder of their candidates, officials, agents and supporters. Zanu-PF has declared certain areas as “no-go” areas for the opposition and ensured that only their candidates are allowed to campaign freely in such areas. Mugabe has even boasted of his degrees in violence and these credentials are likely to be in full evidence during the forthcoming elections.

The second strategy has been to bribe the voters. Small and large favours are doled out to anyone who are willing and prepared to deliver their votes to him. In a country which is now suffering from the highest levels of poverty and deprivation, there is unlikely to be a shortage of takers of Mr Mugabe’s political and economic trinkets. If bribery fails, he resorts to blackmail. Where people have not accepted bribes have been blackmailed by being denied support and services. In times of food shortage, as are prevailing at the moment, opposition supporters are denied food aid and access to other public services. To a population that has been utterly brutalised and demoralised, both bribery and blackmail are very potent weapons of cohesion.

Mugabe’s third strategy has been the use of propaganda. No effort has been spared to drum up support by churning out misleading, false and other self-serving messages mainly through the public owned media. The state owned television, radio and newspapers have been comprehensively deployed to hype government’s successes and programmes and to undermine the opposition. Enemies have been cleverly invented to blame for each and every failure of government. Foreign powers, the opposition, poor weather, the dead and the living have, at one time or another, been trumpeted as the instigators of national misfortunes and perpetrators of evil misdeeds against the country.

And to make absolutely sure that nothing will go wrong, the forth strategy has been to subvert and manipulate electoral agencies and other institutions which are responsible for administration of the elections. The electoral supervisory bodies have been compromised to ensure that constituencies are unfairly demarcated, that voters’ roles are in shambles so as to be easily manipulated and that the whole electoral process is as biased against the opposition as possible. Law enforcement agencies such as the police and the army have been used to harass the opposition and make it as difficult as possible to freely campaign. Even the judiciary has been compromised to ensure that they do not give judgements that are not favourable to Mr Mugabe’s government.

In such circumstances are there any chances that the opposition will win the election? I doubt it very much and hence I can quite understand why the opposition should contemplate boycotting the forthcoming elections. In the absence of the constitutional and other guarantees which they sought for a free and fair election, the opposition in Zimbabwe have got no chance in hell of unseating Mr Mugabe. That notwithstanding and against all good reasons, it is important that the opposition participates in the forthcoming elections. I say this because of a number of reasons.

Firstly, there is a very good chance that Mr Mugabe has called the elections in anticipation that the opposition will boycott them which would give him a clear and unopposed run. By refusing to succumb to the boycott bait, the opposition will make it difficult and painful for Mr Mugabe to retain power. He will be exposed to some form of competition, notwithstanding its weaknesses, which will force him to confront the issues which impinge on his credibility and suitability to continue in office. If he is going to steal the elections, as he no doubt must if he is to remain in office, then the theft will be openly exposed and the whole world will see him for what he is. The world will be watching and Africa will be watching too and Mr Mugabe may just realise that he cannot snort a cock on the outside world without further hurting himself.

Secondly participation will be an act of hope and faith. By not participating, the opposition will have consigned the nation and it’s suffering people to the deepest abyss of hopelessness and despair. Zimbabweans are desperate for some form of hope that there will be an end to their suffering. Any act which rekindles or restores that hope, no matter how small or desperate the act, is a source of comfort and cause for celebration for the suffering masses. The opposition feel that participating will legitimise Mr Mugabe’s hold on power and one cannot argue against this logic. But that is the risk they have to take. If they do not participate they are taking the even greater risk of becoming irrelevant and obsolete.

Finally, and this is the real clincher, there is a chance that against all odds – against the intimidation, the bribery and blackmail, the propaganda and the sword of the state machinery – the opposition will win the election. The people of Zimbabwe have suffered so much that they may turn out in overwhelming numbers to vote for change and no amount of rigging will be able to alter the vote. And if Mr Mugabe decided to subvert the will of the people they will react with such passion and courage which will make the country totally ungovernable, much as is now happening in Kenya. Which will be a real pity.