2009: The year of so much promise

The year 2009 has begun much as like the previous year did – showing so much promise. In many respects 2008 began with a lot of promise for Africa and for human kind generally. Elections were due to be held in Zimbabwe at the end of the first quarter and these elections were expected to resolve the long running political impasse which has seen the country regressing on all important fronts. An African American was beginning to prove that he was a serious contender for a presidential nomination in the United States of America. And I was going to turn fifty in the course of the year.

When the year ended some of the promises had been fulfilled but others remained unfulfilled. I turned fifty. Barack Obama, a forty-six year old man of mixed-race whose father grew up heading goats in Kenya, was elected president of the most powerful nation on earth. I had stayed up all night to follow the election results and when, in the wee hours of 5 November he was declared the winner of the most celebrated contest on the planet, I celebrated along with much of the world. I felt then as I feel now that there was a strong and positive message in this event for me and for the continent. If the sons of our sons can be become the leaders of the free world, why can Africa not rise from the doldrums of poverty and take its rightful place as an important partner in the community of the nations?

But even this momentous event could not musk my overall disappointment with the continent. The Zimbabwe elections were held as scheduled at the end of March in a process which was generally considered as free and fair. The opposition won the majority of the parliamentary seats and it seemed quite obvious that they had also won the main prize – the presidential contest. But it took more than a month for the presidential election results to be announced and when they finally came out the incumbent had clearly lost the contest. However the margin of loss necessitated that a run-off election be held. And so began an unprecedented orgy of violence to coerce the electorate to change their minds and reinstate the vanquished leader. The violence was so widespread and so vicious that the opposing candidate had to withdraw from the contest to save his followers from more harm.

This was a moment for Africa to stand up and say “No, this cannot be allowed!”. But after lengthy deliberations in the Egyptian resort town of Sham el Sheik, the wise leaders of the continent pronounced their verdict – a government of national unity should be established in Zimbabwe. The rest, as the oft employed cliché goes, is now history. Save that the people of Zimbabwe continue to suffer from all manner of natural and unnatural misfortunes – poverty, hunger, cholera, HIV aids, political repression, kidnappings, torture, etcetera, etcetera. If there was a bright spot in all this, it was the dismissal of the then president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki. As the long standing mediator in the Zimbabwean political conflict, Mr Mbeki had proved to be both partial and incompetent. The GNU which he cobbled up has yet to be implemented with the prospects for its success dimming with each passing day.

With the departure of Mbeki, there is hope again that the issue of Zimbabwe will be tackled with the appropriate level of vigour and seriousness. In Africa, there is hope that the year which has just started will be different and better than previous years. A number of very positive signs have emerged. For me the first good sign is the fabulous and heart-warming story of a six-year old German Mika and his one year older girlfriend Anna Bell who, in the early hours of New Year’s Day left their homes with a grand plan of eloping to Africa to get married and honeymoon there. Accompanied by Mika’s five year old sister Anna-Lena who was to witness the marriage ceremony the children packed their suitcases with all sorts of goodies and beach-wear and took a bus to the train station in Hanover where they would catch the train to the airport and from thence fly to the sunny skies of Africa for their wedding. Unfortunately the plan unravelled after a security guard became suspicious of their movements and alerted the police. (Read the full story here http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/05/german-children-elope-mika-annabel).

Young Mika and Anna Bell showed that there is still some good to come out of Africa - the sunshine, the friendly and hospitable people and the breathtaking sights and sounds. These are what Africa has been about for many centuries. These were what attracted many adventurers and explorers to the continent and these are what triggered the partition of the continent more than a century ago by the colonial powers. As it did in the past centuries, Africa still holds a lot of mystic, exoticism and awe for many experienced and aspiring travellers, adventurers and tourists. The three young Germans once again reminded the world of this great potential that remains largely untapped and unfulfilled. And for this incident to have taken place on New Year’s Eve is, in my view, a very good omen for the rest of the year.

However the most serious and significant good omen for Africa is an event about to take place in the United States of America – the inauguration of the first African-American as the president. Obama is not just an African-American. He is an African by custom and heredity. He is a son of an African man from Kenya and he has made several visits to his father’s homeland. From his account in Dreams of My Father, Obama has experienced life as an African. He has travelled on overcrowded matatus (the Nairobi public transport), stayed in grass-thatched huts and drank umqomboti (the African beer). He knows Africa and understands what is at the root of the continent’s problems of poverty and underdevelopment. He is the first American president who is most likely to have a very influential and decisive say in what happens on the continent in the next four years at least. I have a lot of optimism and expectation in him and what he can achieve for the continent.

Some of this achievement will come out of direct and proactive effort on his part – redefining the terms of relationship between Africa and the US, promoting democracy and human rights on the continent, providing better trade terms and other economic incentives and support and increasing the aid levels to the poorer countries. Much more will be achieved indirectly – through providing exemplary leadership for African leaders to emulate and eliminating the often used accusation that any policy which challenges African malfeasance is motivated by racism and colonialist mentality. It is going to be extremely hard for African leaders to ignore or deflect criticism and unwanted attention from Obama.

Already there are indications that the Obama regime will take a more robust stand in some of Africa’s hotspots. They have promised to be more actively involved in Sudan to end the human suffering in Darfur. Obama has expressed concerns about the denial of electoral rights to the people of Zimbabwe. I am optimistic that he will deliver on his promises in these areas. There is a real sense that the old world order is about to change and nothing, not even the intransigence of African dictators and despots, will stand in the path of that change. The omens are very good indeed. Roll on 2009!