The SADC has one hell of a challenge to rescue the Mbeki negotiated Global Political Agreement (GPA) in Zimbabwe from almost certain collapse. After several failed efforts, yet another opportunity will arise on Monday in Pretoria to fashion out an acceptable implementation plan of sorts. However, after the failure of negotiations in Harare earlier this week there is no reason to believe that the outcome will be any more different this time around. There is one fundamental problem with the approach SADC has taken to resolve Zimbabwe’s problem and unless and until they sort this problem out, their efforts will result in almost certain failure.
SADC seems to have forgotten that the basic premise of power sharing is that the parties to the sharing bring the power with them to the table. They agree to add their own to the power which the other parties bring so that the sum total of the power is shared between the parties along an agreeable and workable formula. It is not like the power comes intact from some other independent source and the parties grab what they can in the sharing process. For some reasons best known to themselves, the SADC believe that power is in the hands of Zanu-PF and therefore it is enough for the later to offer bits of that power to the opposition MDC to achieve political settlement and everlasting peace. That is clearly an erroneous, misguided and unproductive approach.
Zanu-PF derives its power from its position as the sitting incumbent. There will some who will argue on the legitimacy or otherwise of this source of power but the fact remains that, through hook or crook, they still control the levers of power in the country. They have achieved this by subordinating and manipulating state institutions over a long period of time to serve their own ends and purposes. These institutions survive and subsist to further the ends of Zanu-PF. It must be remembered that the incumbency was initially achieved legitimately, when the people of Zimbabwe elected Mr Mugabe and his party to lead them in 1980. However the incumbency is now being sustained illegitimately especially now after the party lost the elections of March 2008. So while the party’s incumbency lacks legitimacy, the power which the incumbency confers on them is nevertheless real.
That is what Zanu-PF is really bringing to the negotiating table. Zanu-PF is saying that as sitting incumbents they are not willing to relinquish their power regardless of the outcome of democratic processes. They have the might of the gun on their side – the same gun which they used to shoot down colonial oppression is what they are now using to suppress democratic will and expression. By imposing a solution which allows Zanu-PF to retain that substantial power, the SADC is in fact accepting that the power of incumbency is a bona fide element of Zimbabwe’s political equation. Well it is their choice, it is their decision and I am not going to argue with that.
What I find objectionable is the apparent unwillingness of the SADC to recognise the power which the MDC is bringing to the table – the power of democratic authority. The MDC won the March 2008 elections and, with that, claimed the mandate which is conferred by the democratic processes which the elections represent. The success of the MDC in the elections was as much a stamp of approval by the people of their (MDC’s) rightfulness to preside over the affairs of the Zimbabwe state as it was a repudiation of Zanu-PF’s rule. The people of Zimbabwe spoke loudly and clearly that it was time for a change and they anointed Mr Tsvangirai and his party as their preferred and rightful leaders.
In the circumstances any settlement that will fail to respect or give vent to the will of the people as expressed in March 2008, will be a nullity. This is the point which the MDC has been trying to make to all and sundry who care to listen and they should repeat this position until everyone hears and understands it clearly. MDC derives its power to sit on the negotiating table from the fact that in March 2008 the people of Zimbabwe declared that they wanted them (MDC) to preside over them and not Zanu-PF. If they agree to any settlement that leaves Zanu-PF is charge, no matter how cleverly disguised, they will have betrayed the people who voted for them and, thus, rendered themselves illegitimate and irrelevant.
That is the simple point which the SADC should recognise – any settlement that leaves Zanu-PF in full control is not a settlement at all. These negotiations are not about how the opposition can be accommodated in a Zanu-PF led government but they are about how the will of the people of Zimbabwe can be fulfilled in the face of Zanu-PF’s intransigence and unwillingness to respect democratic outcomes. The task and challenge of the SADC is to break Mugabe’s stranglehold on power and not to protect and sustain it. This requires that they stand up to him and tell him in no uncertain terms that his rule is illegitimate and that he must give way to those who have been chosen by the people.
They should tell him that if he is unwilling to give in peacefully then an AU-led international effort will be launched to forcibly remove him from power after which he will be taken to The Hague to face trial on crimes against humanity. They should tell him that he can avoid these consequences by respecting the spirit and letter of the GPA (which was designed as a safety net for him), by relinquishing meaningful and substantial power and authority to the opposition and by cooperating in all transitional arrangements to a fully democratic dispensation.
Too much time and effort has been wasted in diplomatic niceties (such as Mbeki’s quiet diplomacy) and constructive engagements. The issues which the MDC has demanded to be resolved before they enter into the unity government are valid and understandable but they are just symptoms of the single most significant issue that should be sorted out by SADC if Zimbabwe is ever going to emerge from the current doldrums – breaking Mugabe’s stranglehold on power. This whole initiate should be about telling Mugabe not just to go but showing him the door and holding it open for him to exit. SADC should realise that too much time has been spent in trying to appease a dictator whose time is long past gone. They should now hold the gun to his head and stop pussy-footing around him.
In the meantime, the MDC must hold fast and strong against the pressure being exerted on them by both Zanu-PF and the SADC to join the national unity government under unfavourable terms and conditions. It is all very well for MDC to continue to profess their commitment to the political agreement but they should equally make it clear that they are prepared to walk out of the deal if there is no acceptable and expeditious conclusion to the ongoing negotiations. They should ensure that every one of their concerns is fully resolved before they join their relatively clean hands to Zanu-PF’s blood-dripping hands.
They should insist on and secure sole and full responsibility for the key ministry of home affairs through which they can begin the serious task of restoring law and order in the country. Securing home affairs will also represent the single most important indicator of a break in the power of Zanu-PF. My experience is that life is all about compromise – give and take, some would say. However there are times and cases when it is neither wise nor desirable to compromise. Allowing Zanu-PF to retain all the powers which they are seeking to hold under the GPA is one such issue which cannot and should not be allowed nor be compromised on.
Saturday 24 January 2009
Monday 19 January 2009
2009: The year of so much promise
The year 2009 has begun much as like the previous year did – showing so much promise. In many respects 2008 began with a lot of promise for Africa and for human kind generally. Elections were due to be held in Zimbabwe at the end of the first quarter and these elections were expected to resolve the long running political impasse which has seen the country regressing on all important fronts. An African American was beginning to prove that he was a serious contender for a presidential nomination in the United States of America. And I was going to turn fifty in the course of the year.
When the year ended some of the promises had been fulfilled but others remained unfulfilled. I turned fifty. Barack Obama, a forty-six year old man of mixed-race whose father grew up heading goats in Kenya, was elected president of the most powerful nation on earth. I had stayed up all night to follow the election results and when, in the wee hours of 5 November he was declared the winner of the most celebrated contest on the planet, I celebrated along with much of the world. I felt then as I feel now that there was a strong and positive message in this event for me and for the continent. If the sons of our sons can be become the leaders of the free world, why can Africa not rise from the doldrums of poverty and take its rightful place as an important partner in the community of the nations?
But even this momentous event could not musk my overall disappointment with the continent. The Zimbabwe elections were held as scheduled at the end of March in a process which was generally considered as free and fair. The opposition won the majority of the parliamentary seats and it seemed quite obvious that they had also won the main prize – the presidential contest. But it took more than a month for the presidential election results to be announced and when they finally came out the incumbent had clearly lost the contest. However the margin of loss necessitated that a run-off election be held. And so began an unprecedented orgy of violence to coerce the electorate to change their minds and reinstate the vanquished leader. The violence was so widespread and so vicious that the opposing candidate had to withdraw from the contest to save his followers from more harm.
This was a moment for Africa to stand up and say “No, this cannot be allowed!”. But after lengthy deliberations in the Egyptian resort town of Sham el Sheik, the wise leaders of the continent pronounced their verdict – a government of national unity should be established in Zimbabwe. The rest, as the oft employed cliché goes, is now history. Save that the people of Zimbabwe continue to suffer from all manner of natural and unnatural misfortunes – poverty, hunger, cholera, HIV aids, political repression, kidnappings, torture, etcetera, etcetera. If there was a bright spot in all this, it was the dismissal of the then president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki. As the long standing mediator in the Zimbabwean political conflict, Mr Mbeki had proved to be both partial and incompetent. The GNU which he cobbled up has yet to be implemented with the prospects for its success dimming with each passing day.
With the departure of Mbeki, there is hope again that the issue of Zimbabwe will be tackled with the appropriate level of vigour and seriousness. In Africa, there is hope that the year which has just started will be different and better than previous years. A number of very positive signs have emerged. For me the first good sign is the fabulous and heart-warming story of a six-year old German Mika and his one year older girlfriend Anna Bell who, in the early hours of New Year’s Day left their homes with a grand plan of eloping to Africa to get married and honeymoon there. Accompanied by Mika’s five year old sister Anna-Lena who was to witness the marriage ceremony the children packed their suitcases with all sorts of goodies and beach-wear and took a bus to the train station in Hanover where they would catch the train to the airport and from thence fly to the sunny skies of Africa for their wedding. Unfortunately the plan unravelled after a security guard became suspicious of their movements and alerted the police. (Read the full story here http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/05/german-children-elope-mika-annabel).
Young Mika and Anna Bell showed that there is still some good to come out of Africa - the sunshine, the friendly and hospitable people and the breathtaking sights and sounds. These are what Africa has been about for many centuries. These were what attracted many adventurers and explorers to the continent and these are what triggered the partition of the continent more than a century ago by the colonial powers. As it did in the past centuries, Africa still holds a lot of mystic, exoticism and awe for many experienced and aspiring travellers, adventurers and tourists. The three young Germans once again reminded the world of this great potential that remains largely untapped and unfulfilled. And for this incident to have taken place on New Year’s Eve is, in my view, a very good omen for the rest of the year.
However the most serious and significant good omen for Africa is an event about to take place in the United States of America – the inauguration of the first African-American as the president. Obama is not just an African-American. He is an African by custom and heredity. He is a son of an African man from Kenya and he has made several visits to his father’s homeland. From his account in Dreams of My Father, Obama has experienced life as an African. He has travelled on overcrowded matatus (the Nairobi public transport), stayed in grass-thatched huts and drank umqomboti (the African beer). He knows Africa and understands what is at the root of the continent’s problems of poverty and underdevelopment. He is the first American president who is most likely to have a very influential and decisive say in what happens on the continent in the next four years at least. I have a lot of optimism and expectation in him and what he can achieve for the continent.
Some of this achievement will come out of direct and proactive effort on his part – redefining the terms of relationship between Africa and the US, promoting democracy and human rights on the continent, providing better trade terms and other economic incentives and support and increasing the aid levels to the poorer countries. Much more will be achieved indirectly – through providing exemplary leadership for African leaders to emulate and eliminating the often used accusation that any policy which challenges African malfeasance is motivated by racism and colonialist mentality. It is going to be extremely hard for African leaders to ignore or deflect criticism and unwanted attention from Obama.
Already there are indications that the Obama regime will take a more robust stand in some of Africa’s hotspots. They have promised to be more actively involved in Sudan to end the human suffering in Darfur. Obama has expressed concerns about the denial of electoral rights to the people of Zimbabwe. I am optimistic that he will deliver on his promises in these areas. There is a real sense that the old world order is about to change and nothing, not even the intransigence of African dictators and despots, will stand in the path of that change. The omens are very good indeed. Roll on 2009!
When the year ended some of the promises had been fulfilled but others remained unfulfilled. I turned fifty. Barack Obama, a forty-six year old man of mixed-race whose father grew up heading goats in Kenya, was elected president of the most powerful nation on earth. I had stayed up all night to follow the election results and when, in the wee hours of 5 November he was declared the winner of the most celebrated contest on the planet, I celebrated along with much of the world. I felt then as I feel now that there was a strong and positive message in this event for me and for the continent. If the sons of our sons can be become the leaders of the free world, why can Africa not rise from the doldrums of poverty and take its rightful place as an important partner in the community of the nations?
But even this momentous event could not musk my overall disappointment with the continent. The Zimbabwe elections were held as scheduled at the end of March in a process which was generally considered as free and fair. The opposition won the majority of the parliamentary seats and it seemed quite obvious that they had also won the main prize – the presidential contest. But it took more than a month for the presidential election results to be announced and when they finally came out the incumbent had clearly lost the contest. However the margin of loss necessitated that a run-off election be held. And so began an unprecedented orgy of violence to coerce the electorate to change their minds and reinstate the vanquished leader. The violence was so widespread and so vicious that the opposing candidate had to withdraw from the contest to save his followers from more harm.
This was a moment for Africa to stand up and say “No, this cannot be allowed!”. But after lengthy deliberations in the Egyptian resort town of Sham el Sheik, the wise leaders of the continent pronounced their verdict – a government of national unity should be established in Zimbabwe. The rest, as the oft employed cliché goes, is now history. Save that the people of Zimbabwe continue to suffer from all manner of natural and unnatural misfortunes – poverty, hunger, cholera, HIV aids, political repression, kidnappings, torture, etcetera, etcetera. If there was a bright spot in all this, it was the dismissal of the then president of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki. As the long standing mediator in the Zimbabwean political conflict, Mr Mbeki had proved to be both partial and incompetent. The GNU which he cobbled up has yet to be implemented with the prospects for its success dimming with each passing day.
With the departure of Mbeki, there is hope again that the issue of Zimbabwe will be tackled with the appropriate level of vigour and seriousness. In Africa, there is hope that the year which has just started will be different and better than previous years. A number of very positive signs have emerged. For me the first good sign is the fabulous and heart-warming story of a six-year old German Mika and his one year older girlfriend Anna Bell who, in the early hours of New Year’s Day left their homes with a grand plan of eloping to Africa to get married and honeymoon there. Accompanied by Mika’s five year old sister Anna-Lena who was to witness the marriage ceremony the children packed their suitcases with all sorts of goodies and beach-wear and took a bus to the train station in Hanover where they would catch the train to the airport and from thence fly to the sunny skies of Africa for their wedding. Unfortunately the plan unravelled after a security guard became suspicious of their movements and alerted the police. (Read the full story here http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/05/german-children-elope-mika-annabel).
Young Mika and Anna Bell showed that there is still some good to come out of Africa - the sunshine, the friendly and hospitable people and the breathtaking sights and sounds. These are what Africa has been about for many centuries. These were what attracted many adventurers and explorers to the continent and these are what triggered the partition of the continent more than a century ago by the colonial powers. As it did in the past centuries, Africa still holds a lot of mystic, exoticism and awe for many experienced and aspiring travellers, adventurers and tourists. The three young Germans once again reminded the world of this great potential that remains largely untapped and unfulfilled. And for this incident to have taken place on New Year’s Eve is, in my view, a very good omen for the rest of the year.
However the most serious and significant good omen for Africa is an event about to take place in the United States of America – the inauguration of the first African-American as the president. Obama is not just an African-American. He is an African by custom and heredity. He is a son of an African man from Kenya and he has made several visits to his father’s homeland. From his account in Dreams of My Father, Obama has experienced life as an African. He has travelled on overcrowded matatus (the Nairobi public transport), stayed in grass-thatched huts and drank umqomboti (the African beer). He knows Africa and understands what is at the root of the continent’s problems of poverty and underdevelopment. He is the first American president who is most likely to have a very influential and decisive say in what happens on the continent in the next four years at least. I have a lot of optimism and expectation in him and what he can achieve for the continent.
Some of this achievement will come out of direct and proactive effort on his part – redefining the terms of relationship between Africa and the US, promoting democracy and human rights on the continent, providing better trade terms and other economic incentives and support and increasing the aid levels to the poorer countries. Much more will be achieved indirectly – through providing exemplary leadership for African leaders to emulate and eliminating the often used accusation that any policy which challenges African malfeasance is motivated by racism and colonialist mentality. It is going to be extremely hard for African leaders to ignore or deflect criticism and unwanted attention from Obama.
Already there are indications that the Obama regime will take a more robust stand in some of Africa’s hotspots. They have promised to be more actively involved in Sudan to end the human suffering in Darfur. Obama has expressed concerns about the denial of electoral rights to the people of Zimbabwe. I am optimistic that he will deliver on his promises in these areas. There is a real sense that the old world order is about to change and nothing, not even the intransigence of African dictators and despots, will stand in the path of that change. The omens are very good indeed. Roll on 2009!
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