The end of an unlikely journey. Or is it the beginning?

In less than one week, the United States’ public go to the polls to elect their president for the coming four years and that event will bring to an end what has been the most reverting political contest in history. For as along as I can remember, I have been intrigued by US elections. Many of the elections have produced their iconic moments which remain etched in my memory and heighten my fascination with what must surely be the biggest political reality show on earth.

I recall that many, many years ago when Jimmy Carter secured victory over Gerald Ford one African-American walked to his inauguration carrying a placard emblazoned with the message “Jimmy Carter, here I come” to illustrate the black support for Carter’s candidature. I also followed very closely Bill Clinton’s surprise success against the incumbent president George H Bush. And four years ago I stayed up into the early hours of the night to follow the results of the contest between the younger Bush and Senator John Kerry.

But nothing and I mean nothing had prepared me for the thrill and emotional rollercoaster of the present electoral contest. It is not just the historical context of the contest – the potential of the first non-Caucasian president of the world’s only superpower. It is not just the prospect of the improbable realisation of the previously unthinkable – that a predominantly white nation and white electorate will vote a black man into the presidency of their great nation. It is much more than that. It is a moment of such profound social and historical significance that it will be remembered with both awe and astonishment by future generations and for many decades and centuries to come.

It is too early to predict the outcome of the elections and, as they say, a week in politics is a very long time but the signs are looking good for Senator Barack Obama. He is enjoying a comfortable lead in the polls and the campaign of his rival appears to be in some state of disarray. Of course, anything can happen between now and Tuesday next week – like some crazy act of terrorism being perpetrated by some groups spoiling for a fight with America or, even more fearful, an assassination of Senator Obama by some extremists.

Assuming that none of this happens and that Obama proceeds to win the election as is now widely anticipated, what is going to happen? First there will be a huge and collective sigh of relief around the whole world. Obama appears to be the favourite candidate of the world, if the results of global polls are anything to go by, and his success against considerable odds will be received with much relief and elation. An Obama victory will, in one master stroke, transform perceptions of how America is viewed by both her enemies and her friends. It will have demonstrated that regardless of its demonisation by many, America can and will dare to be different and that she is well and truly the bastion of freedom and innovation on the planet.

For how else can one explain how a first generation African American born of an African father bearing an African name and a white American mother, who was brought up in Indonesia and the faraway island of Hawaii be elected the president of the most powerful nation on earth? That could never happen anywhere else in the world. Members of minority groups have little or no chance of being elected presidents unless they do so through force of arms, much less do those who are considered as foreigners – as no doubt Senator Obama would be considered in many parts of the world. In Africa, one must be exhibit a high degree of affiliation and affinity with the appropriate national, ethnic and tribal groupings before they can be elected into leadership positions.

I have said it before and I will say it again, the election of Obama in the US will be a good thing for Africa. It will make it that much more difficult for the despots on the continent to defend and deflect criticism of their repression as machinations of the racist West. For far too long the standard reaction to criticisms of African leaders for their undemocratic practices and abuse of human rights has been that Africa is being victimised by the West who have racist tendencies and a neo-colonialist agenda. This has somewhat tempered the appetite for a more robust confrontation by the West to many of the excesses of the dictators. But this is unlikely to remain the case.

A victory for Obama will precipitate a whole rethink on how democracy is practiced in Africa. Because of his much closer ties to Africa (the land of his father), Obama is likely to encourage a more aggressive engagement with the continent. That will mean getting closer to those nations that share the principles of good governance and, even more importantly, confronting those that disregard acceptable democratic behaviour. Leaders like Robert Mugabe are likely to face a much tougher scrutiny and challenge of their policies. It will not be as easy to dismiss President Obama’s criticism as it was with President George Bush’s protestations.

Obama will come into office with relatively clean hands. He opposed the Iraq war from the beginning and he has pledged to pull out the troops as soon as possible after he assumes office. If he follows through with that promise then it may mean that the US will be fighting one less war and may have the resources and the capacity to deploy its military to other troubled spots. I believe there are areas like Zimbabwe in which such intervention is long overdue and will be most welcomed. I doubt very much that Obama will be a soft touch on human rights issues and he may, in fact, seek to take America in an entirely new direction to assert America’s leadership on democracy and human rights.

A victory for Obama will also strengthen many people’s belief in democratic electoral processes and put new meaning to and emphasis on democratic means of resolving political conflicts. In Africa, in particular, there has been a loss of faith on elections as a democratic process. Recent elections held in Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe have left voters very disillusioned and frustrated by their inability to express their wishes though the ballot box. Incumbent ruling parties have ridden roughshod over the wishes of the electorate though blatant vote rigging, disenfranchisement of voters and manipulation of electoral results.

There are suspicions that Senator Obama will be denied victory next week through similar machinations. In the event that Obama wins (implying that no chicanery has taken place) people everywhere will feel that there is value in using one’s vote to achieve political objectives. This will, in the long term, discourage the use of violence and other undemocratic means to achieve political change. Peace and tranquillity will descend on many hotspots around the world and that will, in turn, usher in higher levels of prosperity and development in the world.

Maybe I am being too optimistic and fanciful. In any case the American people still have to complete the voting on November 4 and the votes still have to be tallied and the winner declared. Until that happens, everything remains as mere speculation and wishful thinking. But as Senator Obama has so eloquently suggested, there is merit in believing in “the audacity of hope”.